Market Review 01/29/18
Posted on April 2, 2018
A collection of notes about what happened over the last three days in the crypto and ICO world. I find it useful for anyone wanting to keep its finger on the market’s pulse.
In the news:
XEM: NEM // XLM: Stellar // KMD: Komodo // ARDR: ARDOR // ETH: Ethereum // BTC: Bitcoin
XEM was leading the pack early that day with a 18.57% improvement — around the time when news of a large hack broke out.
On the 26th, Coincheck, a Japanese exchange admitted that some $533m XEM had been stolen.
A few things to unpack here:
That’s more then what the loss of 850k bitcoins represented back in 2014 when Mt Gox was hacked.
However, Mt Gox represented 80% of global trading volume at the time. Coincheck is less then 0.25% today.
Seems like that same fragmentation that has been hurting liquidity is also a significant defense against hacking. The market barely moved.
Coincheck offered to pick up the tab and compensate investors 0.81 on the dollar. The time frame remains unclear.
This speaks volume about how lucrative these exchanges are.
The coins are colored. It will be interesting to see what XEM’s community will decide to do about this theft.
If XEM was to fork the token thieves out it could create significant pressure on the token’s price.
XLM topped off its strong rally. 34% in just about a week. The token is last in a long line of challengers to ETH ICO preeminence.
Among these challengers KMD, STRAT and ARDR have been recently in the spotlight. BaaS, ICO platform or currency, who will win?
Part of ETH value is derived from its utility as a store of value. Investors hold ETH to access to ICOs and projects Hodl ETH after a raise.
It will be interesting to see if ETH can hold its price if stripped of that function. Back at being the world’s computer with an amazing team!
XLM was also in the news as a potential contender for Stripe support after the latter dropped BTC.
Seems like XLM is everywhere.
The bigger picture
This passed week also marked the expiry of CME first bitcoin futures contracts — without any impact on the crypto market.
A lot had been said on how the jan 17th price drop had coincided with the expiry of CBOE first bitcoin futures.
And that’s what it was, just a coincidence.
Despite the hype, futures transactions on both CME and CBOE are next to insignificant. The biggest change in OI on the previous week was 500.
That’s equivalent to $5m-ish. While the lowest change in OI on that same week was 20.
The past data from the CFTC suggested that the market was net short — which would be typical of miners seeking to hedge their primary source of income.
Interestingly, the CFTC latest report suggested that the market is now net long. Seems like participants are getting bullish.
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This document is intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations.