Posted on April 2, 2018
Augur is an open-source, decentralized, peer-to-peer prediction market platform built on Ethereum. Its purpose is to democratize and decentralize finance. They’ll do this by enabling anyone, anywhere, at any time in the world to create and speculate on derivatives at a low cost for the first time.
Augur’s prediction markets provide powerful predictive data – you can think of the current market price of any share in any market as an estimate of the probability of that outcome actually occurring in the real world. For example, a share priced at 64 cents has a 64% probability of happening.
The accuracy of prediction markets rests in the idea of the “The Wisdom of the Crowd”. This states that the average prediction made by a group is superior to that made by any of the individuals in that group. Markets are the perfect way to aggregate this collective wisdom – which is made up of all the information, analysis and opinion held by members of the group. With these individuals buying and selling shares in the outcome of real-world events, based on their personal knowledge and opinion, the market prices reach an equilibrium that reflect the opinion of the entire group.
Prediction markets have proven to be more accurate at forecasting the future than individual experts, surveys or traditional opinion polling. They provide real-time predictive data and are traded using real money – which incentivizes market participants to reveal what they think will happen, rather than what they hope will happen. Traders are putting their money where their mouths are.
– For a prediction market to succeed, it needs to have low barriers to entry and be highly liquid. Augur covers both points.
– It is estimated that Augur’s fees will be 1% of the profit you made on their platform. It is significantly cheaper than other prediction markets. For example, PredictIt charges 10% fees and BitFair ranges between 3-7%.
– The first version of Augur will likely be somewhat slow and slightly expensive (pennies and many seconds per trade)
– They depend on the release of 0x to make their platform faster, which is out of their control
The network is not live yet, but the beta has been up for over a year.
There is no hard date set for Augurs launch but they have a timeline that they update regularly. The upcoming developments are:
-Re-audit of fixes / changes made re: issues found via auditors [underway]
-Deployment hardening, testing, preparation [underway]
-Assess final audit reports from post-fixes
-Final UI cleanup
-Live launch with a bug bounty market “Will this market be hacked?”
Augur’s reporting system runs on a cycle of consecutive 7-day long Fee Windows. Any Reporting Fees collected by Augur during a given Fee Window are added to a Reward Pool for that Fee Window. The Reward Pool is used to reward REP holders who participate in Augur’s reporting process. REP holders who Stake REP during a given Fee Window receive that number of Participation Tokens for that Fee Window. At the end of the Fee Window, the Reward Pool is paid out to holders of Participation Tokens in proportion to the number of Participation Tokens they hold.
In this way, all REP holders who participate during a Fee Window will receive a portion of the fees collected during that window. Participation includes Designated Reporting or Open Reporting, Disputing an Outcome, or simply purchasing Participation Tokens directly.
Stox and Gnosis are also blockchain market prediction platforms.
Augur is working with the global design firm IDEO CoLab to enhance the UI of the platform.
REP is traded on Bittrex, Poloniex and Kraken.
Augur is an application layer on top of Ethereum. In the future, they plan to integrate the protocol layer 0x.
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This document is intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations