01/18/18 Market Review
Posted on April 2, 2018
A collection of notes about what happened over the last three days in the crypto and ICO world. I find it useful for anyone wanting to keep its finger on the market’s pulse.
This document is intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations.
** special crash **
This newsletter seizes the opportunity to look back and comment on what happened over the last 4 days. It adopts a different format then usual.
Between its peak on January 13 and bottom on January 17 the crypto market dropped ~80–90%.
In the news:
The broad crypto market // FRST: First // BCC: BitConnect // SIA: Sia
The market drop started when it was around 12pm Sunday in Seoul, 3am in London and 10pm in NY. It was clearly originated in Asia.
Prices started plateauing when the US market woke up on Sunday at 8am. US was buying the dip.
Monday was uneven, marred with uncertainty but there weren’t any clear patterns.
The drop resumed Tuesday at 7am when professional Asia woke up. Later that day, it accentuated. Meanwhile It was still night time in NY and dusk in London. Once again, clearly Asia driven.
There was a brief rise when London woke up at 9am that day. Things started going south again when it was time for NY to wake up.
It’s only at 9am in NY on Wednesday that both NY and London started pumping while Seoul was finishing its day.
Overall, it seems that Asia was leading the drop. However, Europe and the US did join the fray at some point.
The first type of tokens to be hit were the medium caps — of sizes ranging between $200m and $5bn.
The second type of tokens to be hit were large caps — of sizes $5bn and above. It took 2 days for both segments to start moving in synch.
Surprisingly, smaller caps were much more stable and late to the party.
The first drop for small caps started on Jan 15 at 16pm NY and overall these caps exhibited much lower volatility.
In the end, the largest caps dropped 90%, medium caps 87% and small caps 69%.
It’s interesting to note that as people were exiting they didn’t go for more established cryptos but straight to fiat.
The internet was abuzz with all sorts of explanations for the drop. Recurring ones were tied to politics and banks.
Related to politics: South Korean potential ban on cryptos, PBOC potential crack down on exchanges and tighter fiscal rules on mining.
Related to banks: Wall Street and media’s supposed intimacy, the futures market, margin calls, UK banks and token proceeds
There was also the recurring statement made about crypto market’s seasonality.
For more likely and backed by empirical evidence is the complex nature of crypto markets.
As stated in our previous newsletter, crypto markets are non linear in nature. Even the smallest combination of random causes can have the largest repercussions.
The drop was also a time for potential scams or heavily manipulated cryptos to show their true self.
Among the star performers during the crash were FRST, BCC and SIA.
FRST was leading the pack of gainers. Shining like a tempting beacon of hope. Easy when current 24h volume is at $700k.
BCC was also a top gainer over the last 2 days. All while the State of Texas had issued a cease and desist order against it.
SIA demonstrated high resilience and was in the green far more often then it was in the red.
With Bitmain launching an ASIC miner for SIA. It is possible that the price was manipulated by Jihan Wu to entice miners adoption.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Altcoins #Cryptocurrencies #Cryptocrash #FRST #Bitconnect #BCC #Siacoin #SIA