01/14/18 Market Review
Posted on April 2, 2018
A collection of notes about what happened over the last three days in the crypto and ICO world. I find it useful for anyone wanting to keep its finger on the market’s pulse.
This document is intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations.
In the news:
BNB: Binance // ZRX: 0x // ARDR: Ardor // STRAT: Stratis / TRX: Tron
BNB jumped 38.96%. Adding users at a rate that spiked at 240k per hour will surely exercise pressure on a token that provides trade discounts to its holder.
Investors beware that BNB’s trade discount is set to decrease by steps over the years. It is likely to turn into a game of chicken before each drop.
ZRX dropped 16.31% after the run up of the last few days. There were no explanation for it.
No bad news and little to nothing that would lead to think about a potential rebalancing in DEX centric portfolios.
Which raise the question of the extent to which crypto markets are efficient at assimilating information. More on that in the bigger picture.
ARDR appreciated 36.77%. Also known as NXT 2.0, the BaaS token recently launched its first child chain, IGNIS.
Which tech shall prevail between side chains and child chains?
ARDR and STRAT have both been market darlings recently. Looks like the jury is still out.
Overall, BaaS seems to be the new black with even Baidu announcing its intent to join the ranks.
On Friday, everyone was a winner as markets were recovering from the Korean scare. Meanwhile, Kraken was down.
ARDR was pursuing its incredible rally and BTG was climbing 45% because, why not? There were no other plausible explanations.
TRX continued its stomach churning drop, loosing almost 50% in a week. A chilling reminder of things to come for the broader market.
And Kraken was still down.
The bigger picture
The Efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) states that asset prices reflect unbiased and fully informed estimate of an asset’s value.
The random walk theory, which is interrelated to EMH holds that security price changes are independent of one another.
Testing crypto markets reveals a non random pattern across time. Random walk theory and consequently EMH don’t apply.
Instead, empirical data suggests that crypto markets function like Complex Adaptive Systems, of which non linearity is a key property.
If crypto markets are non linear, then sometime trying to identify causes for price fluctuation is futile.
These causes are likely to be small scale inputs for much bigger outputs.
And that’s why I legitimately couldn’t explain 0x price drop on Thursday.
#Binance #BNB #0x #ZRX #Ardor #ARDR #Stratis #STRAT #Tron #TRX #Altcoins #Cryptocurrencies